NIO Q2: Revenue Up, Losses Narrowed, Li Bin Insists on Q4 Profitability

NIO recently held its 2025 Q2 earnings call, where Founder, Chairman, and CEO Li Bin, along with CFO Qu Yu, outlined key goals—including a Q4 monthly sales target of 50,000 units, a monthly production capacity goal of 56,000 units, and plans to launch 3 large SUVs in 2026. They also addressed capacity priorities for ONVO (乐道) and NIO models, gross margin targets, and financial performance.

1. Q4 Goals: 50k Monthly Sales, Capacity Allocation & 2026 SUV Plan

a. Sales & Capacity Targets

Li Bin stated NIO aims for 50,000 monthly sales on average in Q4 (total 150,000 units across 3 brands: NIO, ONVO, Firefly), supported by a monthly production capacity of 56,000 units. The capacity breakdown is:

• ONVO: 25,000 units/month
• NIO brand: 25,000 units/month
• Firefly (萤火虫): 6,000 units/month

b. Capacity Priorities for Hot Models

Demand for the all-new NIO ES8 and ONVO L90 remains strong. NIO will prioritize their production to ease supply shortages (in collaboration with supply chain partners):

• ONVO L90: Targets 15,000 units/month capacity by October
• All-new NIO ES8: Targets 15,000 units/month capacity by December

Due to capacity shifts to ONVO L90, ONVO L60 now has waiting lists. Four NIO Group models (ONVO L90/L60, all-new ES8, Firefly) currently require waiting, with ONVO’s capacity constraints expected to ease in October.

c. Gross Margin Goals

• Model-specific: 20% gross margin target for ONVO L90 and all-new NIO ES8 by Q4
• Group-wide: Long-term 20% gross margin; Q4 target for overall vehicle gross margin is 16%-17% (to support Q4 profitability)
• Brand breakdown: NIO brand (20%-25%), ONVO (over 15%), Firefly (around 10%)

d. 2026 Product Plan

• 3 large SUVs to launch: ONVO L80, NIO ES9, and 5-seat NIO ES7 (ONVO L80 may be unveiled in 2025 but not delivered until 2026 due to capacity priorities for existing models)
• No new models for “5566” series (ET5, ET5T, ES6, EC6) or Firefly in 2026 (only small special editions for 5566 possible, e.g., previous ET5 Championship Edition)

e. R&D Investment

NIO plans ~RMB 2 billion in R&D spending (non-IFRS) for Q3 and Q4, aiming to improve R&D efficiency and reduce new model development costs without compromising output.

2. Q2 2025 Financial & Delivery Performance

a. Revenue & Losses

• Total revenue: RMB 19.0087 billion (+9.0% YoY, +57.9% QoQ)
• Net loss: RMB 4.9948 billion (-1.0% YoY, -26.0% QoQ)
• Adjusted net loss (non-IFRS, excluding equity incentive and organizational optimization costs): RMB 4.1267 billion (-9.0% YoY, -34.3% QoQ)

b. Deliveries

• Total deliveries: 72,056 units (+25.6% YoY, +71.2% QoQ)
• Brand breakdown: NIO (47,132), ONVO (17,081), Firefly (7,843)

c. Gross Margin

• Overall gross margin: 10.0% (+0.3% YoY, +2.4% QoQ) – driven by higher used car sales and R&D service revenue
• Vehicle gross margin: 10.3% (-1.9% YoY, +0.1% QoQ) – YoY decline due to product mix changes, partially offset by lower unit material costs

d. Cash & Liquidity

• Cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term investments, and long-term time deposits: RMB 27.2 billion as of June 30
• Note: Operating cash outflows occurred in H1 2025; current liabilities exceed current assets, and shareholders’ equity is negative. NIO believes its financial resources (including available credit lines) will support daily operations for the next 12 months.

3. Q3 2025 Guidance (All-Time High)

• Deliveries: 87,000–91,000 units (+40.7%–47.1% YoY)
• Revenue: RMB 21.812 billion–22.876 billion (+16.8%–22.5% YoY)

Conclusion: NIO Accelerates Toward Q4 Profitability

NIO’s Q2 results reflect improved revenue, narrower losses, and strong delivery growth. However, with a Q2 net loss of RMB 4.9948 billion, the company is ramping up efforts to hit its Q4 profitability target—evidenced by its record-high Q3 guidance and prioritized production for high-margin models (ONVO L90, all-new NIO ES8). Whether NIO can achieve profitability in Q4 remains to be verified amid fierce market competition.编辑分享